Category Archives: politics

A Time for Financial Regulation

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Photo credit: Obama-Biden Transition Project, licensed under creative commons

Originally published on January 28, 2009 at politicsunlocked.com

President Obama’s financial team, including Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Economic Advisory BoardTim Geithner, Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers, head of the National Economic Council and Austan Goolsbee, Advisory Board Economist, hit the ground running with a comprehensive plan for financial reform geared at filling holes in the existing regulatory system.


The plan is separate from the much discussed stimulus package before congress and provides no bailout, tax cuts or government spending to help the economy.  Yet this plan is a bold act of reasonable and necessary regulation designed to bring the government up to speed in its oversight of the financial industry.  

Against Abuses and Mismanagement, Not Free Markets

The plan calls for:

1. Increased oversight on the part of the Federal Reserve and regulatory agencies such as theSecurities and Exchange Commission.

2. Federal standards and scrutiny of insurance companies, mortgage brokers, hedge funds and credit rating agencies.

3. Oversight and listing or trading through a clearing house or exchange for derivatives and other financial instruments. 

4. Higher capitalization requirements for banks and large investment companies.  

The plan addresses specific concerns which led to some of the biggest financial scandals in history.  

Two points of focus are eliminating conflicts of interest which allowed financial rating agencies to profit from transactions with the institutions they themselves rated and limits on executive compensation for companies receiving federal bailout dollars.

Much of this regulation can be imposed by the executive branch, but some will require the passage of new legislation.  A general belief that significant failings in government oversight led to the current financial crisis is widely held, but even so, new legislation may run into opposition from those opposed to any and all government regulation of markets.  However, support for the proposed rules is coming from many corners of Washington, including Republican political circles.

The Group of 30, a respected committee of governmental and industry representatives, published a report on January 15th, 2009 calling for dramatic regulation and reform similar to the Obama administration plan.  This should be no surprise, as the commission was headed by Paul Volcker, a longtime Obama advisor prior to being named Chairman of his Economic Advisory Board.  Early reviews of the commission report and the administration’s plans are positive. 

Too Much Government Interference?
While there is a risk that new regulation will slow otherwise healthy investment and financial activity, something obviously needs to be done, and there are reasons to have faith in the proposals.  

The new administration’s economic team has a strong free-market philosophy.  The fact that these free-market economists are proposing stricter regulation is a testament to their certainty that the market is not able to correct itself.  The free reign of financial entities created layers of financial miscalculation and mismanagement which now threaten to collapse the entire economy.  

Those concerned that regulation of the financial industry is a move toward Socialism should rest assured that the regulations proposed are no bailout or nationalization.   These rules aim to stop financial mismanagement and criminal fraud rather than affect the redistribution of wealth.

While the traditional view is that stricter regulations do nothing to aid an economy in recession, our current problems may be the exception.  

Much of the distress in the credit market is a result of a failure in confidence.  This lack of confidence surrounding asset valuation, as well as the essential underlying health of the financial system, calls for the imposition of strict, yet reasonable regulations.  Such reform may indeed signal a return to responsible management and begin to restore shaken confidence in the financial system.

Obama Faces an Auspicious Beginning

By Marc Seltzer; originally published on January 19, 2009, at politicsunlocked.com

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Four Faces on the Wall

While I was visiting with friends over the holidays – and being treated to delicious homemade tamales – the conversation eventually turned to President-elect Barack Obama.  My friend’s entire family was very excited about Obama, especially since one member of this Mexican-American household had recently taken a position in Washington D.C., working in the Congressional Office of Representative Linda Sanchez.  Soon, one of the children appeared, proudly showing an autographed picture of Mr. Obama.

My friend explained that each generation of the family had placed a portrait on the wall.

Older Mexican Americans, she continued, traditionally have a picture of the PopeCatholicism is the majority religion in Mexico and much of Latin America, and the Mexican-American community maintains their Catholic identity in the United States.  In fact, the immigrant communities in the U.S. have continued to embrace Catholicism, while many in the general population have lessened their bonds with Church traditions.

The second picture was of President John F. Kennedy.  For those old enough to have experienced the election of the first Catholic President of the United States, Kennedy represents the elevation of the Catholic minority in the United States to the mainstream.  Kennedy was also a charismatic orator remembered for inspiring calls to service, guiding the United States though the risk of nuclear confrontation with the Soviet Union during the Cuban Missile Crisis and for proposing to send a man to the moon within ten years.

The somewhat younger generation had placed a portrait of former President Ronald Reagan.  It was during Reagan’s second term that immigration reform legislation allowed millions of immigrants living in the United States illegally to file for legal status and, eventually, citizenship.

The “Amnesty” program, as it was called, offered millions of Mexican Americans, and other undocumented residents living in the United States for at least five years, improved legal and social status and economic opportunity.  Many of the political achievements of the Latino communities in the United States date from this period, as those who had remained politically quiet, gained a voice and seat at the table in American politics.  Reagan’s passionate belief in a “new dawn” of individual opportunity resonated with our new citizens as it did with Americans on Main Street.

These esteemed figures present very different worldviews, but they are all deeply revered by their followers.

The fourth picture on the wall was none other than Barack Obama.

But is it a surprise that Barack Obama is so honored, even before taking office?  Like the other three, the President-elect moved audiences worldwide with his charisma and eloquence, addressing our common problems with faith and vision.

To many, Obama’s election represented, in itself, the rise of the underdog, despite challenges, to the heights of possibility.  Seeing themselves in Obama, children of the world are looking at what this man accomplished and seeing that any individual can strive to greatness.

Obama, Choose Your Battles

Photo credit: Amir Farshad Ebrahimi; license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en

By Marc Seltzer; originally published on January 9, 2009, at politicsunlocked.com

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Obama is undoubtedly feeling the pressure, felt jointly in capitals around the world, to help end the conflict in Gaza, where a fierce Israeli military operation, has resulted in significant death and destruction.

The U.S. has traditionally played a major role in facilitating negotiations throughout Israeli-Palestinian conflicts.  The deeply divisive and longstanding battle goes to the heart of the security and future of the state of Israel and rights to statehood and autonomous homeland for the Palestinian people.

However, despite the best intentions, the conflict in Gaza will not be solved easily.  At this point, President Obama’s involvement risks squandering substantial energy and political momentum desperately needed for domestic reforms.

A lesson from history

Republicans will remember:  The first significant act in office for President William Jefferson Clinton was to revisit the military ban on service by gay soldiers.

It was January 1992, and Clinton took on his own Joint Chiefs to establish a new compromise policy, commonly known as don’t ask, don’t tell.  Merits of the reform aside (which allowed many soldiers serving honorably to continue service) it angered the political right, which took sights on the Clinton Presidency and never looked back.

In retrospect, the action cost the Clinton Presidency dearly.  Despite significant improvements in welfare reform, balanced budgets and economic prosperity during his presidency, the Clinton Presidency never ceased to arouse conservative ire.  The animosity from the right dogged the President in office, played a role in Al Gore’s unsuccessful Presidential bid, and may have lingered into the campaign of Hillary Clinton, eight years later.

All this comes as a warning to President-elect Barack Obama:  Choose your first battles carefully.

Global perspectives

Obama would do well to remember that the U.S. is involved in other conflicts throughout the world, some demanding presidential attention. India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, for example, have a joint population of 1.3 billion people, with robust nuclear arsenals in the first two and an ongoing U.S. military operation in the third.  All have recently been unwilling hosts to tragic terrorist violence directed against civilians.

While sympathetic in their distress, the civilian population of Gaza remains less than 500,000 people. Israel, and the greater Palestinian population number less than 8 million.

Barack Obama has spoken solemnly about his commitment to the faltering U.S. economy, the foundation of this nation’s prosperity and security.  His steady hand convinced voters that he was best candidate to keep a nasty recession from turning into something historic and much worse.  Americans will be looking to President Obama for leadership.

At least at the outset, Obama must avoid any temptation to solve all the world’s problems.  Being drawn into negotiating a cease-fire in Gaza risks squandering the new administration’s goodwill and focus.

Barack Obama’s Political Philosophy

Photo by Aaron Muszalski; licensed http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

By Marc Seltzer; originally published on December 15, 2008, at politicsunlocked.com

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A new political party has appeared on the American scene. It is the Pragmatic Party and Barack Obama is its leader. The platform is so new and disconcerting that many have not yet wrapped their minds around the implications.

What his critics fail to understand is that Obama is not just about be-nice politics.  He’s about practical solutions rather than simplistic party ideologies.

After two years in the national spotlight as a transformational candidate – captivating audiences, filling stadiums and talking straight about his priorities (the middle class, economics, health care, education) people are still asking if he has been clear and upfront with his politics.

One month into the transition, carrying references to Lincoln, FDR and Ronald Reagan, people are showing surprise with his cabinet picks.  In despair, some suspect a closet conservative, while others are hoping for a liberal double agent.

Some Republicans are calling him a socialist, while Fred Barns in the Weekly Standard observes “he’s pragmatic so far in one direction, rightward – who knew?”

The public went along with the old-style reporting it seems. 68 percent of Americans polled expected Mr. Obama to be liberal. They have their reasons. Mr. Obama ran as a Democrat, after all. In our essentially two-party system, if Obama had run on a new third-party platform, he might have received 4 or 5 percent of the vote, or because he sounds remarkably intelligent, 12 percent tops. Obama ran instead as a Democrat, a pragmatic choice it seems, since he won 53 percent.

It’s also true that minority candidates are often champions of more progressive political parties and organizations, which traditionally labored to advance rights and protections for disenfranchised groups. True, but Colin Powell and Condoliza Rice, not to mention Clarence Thomas, were all Republican administration appointments.

Jessie Jackson ran for President in 1984 and 1988 on a rainbow coalition for a new kind of inclusiveness. He may have paved the way in part for the Obama presidential bid, but in sharp contrast, Barack Obama, ran on behalf of the middle class.

On the other hand, the University of Chicago, where Obama taught Constitutional Law, is a center of free-market economics.  Note too, that Obama’s selections for his cabinet and crew in economics and foreign affairs are centrists.  Centrists can adopt policies from, and forge policies which appeal to, both sides of the political spectrum, without being called traitors.

There is still no approved vocabulary for describing pragmatism in politics.  What’s that Berkeley’s Professor Lakoff said, until there’s a metaphor, there’s no word and no thought?

It’s about time that someone described this new party to the pundits so that they can start using its lingo in their coverage. Not that the President Elect has been hiding anything. He has said on more than one occasion, that he is looking for “what works,” or, when things look really bad, “whatever works.”  Let’s start describing policy, not for its political effect, but its accomplishment on the merits.  The words “results oriented” and “consequences” come to mind.

“Pragmatic,” in this context, is the opposite of ideological. Democrats and Republicans aren’t always ideological, but often are, with important consequences.  The mantra “Government regulation is a drag on the economy” rings a bell.  The notion of raising taxes to balance the budget during a recession is not quite ideology, but it is cured by pragmatism, none-the-less.  Pragmatism works against ideology and lunacy, it seems — an added benefit.

What should we expect from the Pragmatic party? It’s hard to say, but we should expect an Obama administration to look to the facts and circumstances of the problems we face, rather than applying ready-made doctrines from yesteryear. Obama doesn’t seem to care whether a policy is liberal or conservative; he seems to believe it is more important to talk about whether it will accomplish its goals. It turns out that many of the liberal v. conservative debates have already been, well, decided.

Take, for example, raising taxes.  This is done to balance budgets, but also to fund entitlements and spending programs.  Obama’s appointment to head the Economic Council of Advisors, Christina Romer, recently published a serious historical analysis showing that tax hikes measurably retard economic growth.  A pragmatist will have to weigh how much the revenue is needed in the short term against the eventual harm to the economy and resulting loss of revenue over the long term.  Not very exciting in a televised debate, but logical, maybe even “good government.”

Better let the economists calculate the optimal results, rather than have politicians debate raising taxes vs. lowering taxes, without really knowing what they are talking about. Politicians with ideology don’t actually have to know what they are talking about, but pragmatists do for they are only as good as the results obtained by solutions they propose.

Somalia — Foreign Policy Dilemma

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(Link to my Care2.com story about the April 2009 hijacking and rescue here)

Piracy on the high seas fascinates for its boldness and improbability.  However, recent hijackings in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean go beyond notorious criminality.  They are a warning beacon from the failed state of Somalia,where lawlessness may signal a new training, financing and launching site for terrorist activity.

Somali pirates have long preyed on hapless cargo ships and successfully negotiated multi-million dollar ransoms with owners and insurers.  In response, Britain, Russia, the United States and a host of other nations sent warships to patrol the Gulf of Aden where most hijackings occur.  Unimpeded, the pirates have reached out into the Indian Ocean, broadening the range of their attacks.

Environmental Risk

In November 2008, pirates took over a loaded supertanker carrying a cargo of over $100 million in Saudi Arabian oil. At a minimum, this escalation raises the risk of environmental catastrophe and broadcasts a new terrorist opportunity. Like Afghanistan in the 1990’s, Somalia is at once a failed state and an international time-bomb.

Long troubled by extremism and corruption, Somalia has recently seen battles between Islamic fundamentalists and U.S. and Ethiopian-supported forces. Meanwhile, Somalia has remained desperately poor and largely lawless. The Transitional Government controls the capital, but lacks authority and may not be able to maintain control as neighboring Ethiopia removes its troops by the end of 2008. Those that thrive in a lawless environment, from terrorists to criminals, are increasing their ranks and activities.

Recalling Events in Afghanistan

In March 2001, Taliban authorities, then in control of Afghanistan, carried out a highly publicized destruction of the 1500 year-old monumental statues of Bamyan, citing offense to the Taliban’s strict code of religious orthodoxy. Many in the international community were horrified at the destruction of cultural treasures and protested the disregard for international norms of respect for historical artifacts. Militant Islamic training camps were also under international surveillance, but were allowed to propagate. No serious intervention was contemplated out of respect for territorial sovereignty sacrosanct to international law.

In retrospect, had the outside world intervened in Afghanistan prior to 9/11, they might have uncovered evidence of the plot to fly planes into the World Trade Center, Pentagon and White House.  They would undoubtedly have found the extent to which training camps were preparing tens of thousands of recruits for a worldwide campaign of terrorism. Later, when U.S. forces invaded Afghanistan as part of operation Enduring Freedom, they did indeed find plans and drawings of U.S. targets.

Western powers are in no mood to expend precious resources on a quagmire in Somalia after the difficulty rebuilding and securing Afghanistan and Iraq. However, all should be cognizant of the signals coming from Somali waters.

Pirates have taken millions of dollars in ransom year after year. The recent increase in their attacks now threatens to make environmental catastrophe a part of the equation. The nexus between the Somali pirates and Al Qaeda or other terror organizations is not clearly known. However, Afghanistan is instructive; those bent on destruction may see Somalia as a base and safe haven, where international laws and norms do not apply.

Obama Nominates Hillary Clinton for Secretary of State.

By Marc Seltzer; originally published on November 21, 2009, at politicsunlocked.com

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The nomination of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to be the nation’s next Secretary of State says a lot about President-elect Barack Obama.

The nomination shows Obama’s confidence to bring a former rival into his inner circle. Throughout her presidential nomination campaign, Senator Clinton demonstrated intelligence and charisma, not to mention the popularity and good will she earned as New York’s U.S. Senator and as First Lady from 1992 to 2000.

That said, Hillary Clinton does not have universal appeal.

According to an August 2008 Gallup survey, 72% of Republicans viewed Hillary Clinton negatively, although she was viewed favorably by 80% of Democrats and by 54% of all respondents, including independents.  Her vocal role in the health care reform campaign in 1992 was derided as arrogant or, at least, beyond the responsibility of the First Lady.  Her very presence, imbued with contemporary feminism, has always rubbed some conservatives the wrong way.

Despite polar reactions to her in the United States, Clinton should be well received by the international community.  More than any other figure in today’s American political landscape, she symbolizes theBill Clinton presidency’s international popularity.  He was admired for his eloquence and prized for his effort to bring about negotiated solutions to international conflicts. It is not that Senator Clinton can share responsibility for her husband’s accomplishments, but that through her appointment, Obama undoubtedly sends a clear signal of the kind of international relations he seeks.

After eight difficult years of U.S. foreign policy marked by faulty intelligence and planning, abrogation of international rules, and unilateral action, many in the international community are eager for change. Obama campaigned for a return to respect for conventions and negotiation in international leadership. His campaign was followed widely with great enthusiasm throughout the world.

With the nomination of Hillary Clinton, Obama has smartly linked with the success of the prior Democratic administration and has immediately created some international foundation.  Hillary Clinton not only brings the goodwill engendered from the Clinton Presidency, but is also failry well-known politically.

While she was criticized by her party for her initial vote authorizing war in Iraq, in her role as Secretary of State, a voting record demonstrating the willingness to use force if diplomacy fails, is a mark of strength.  Her personal familiarity with world leaders, through extensive official travel as First Lady and Senator, should not be discounted either. Obama has chosen both an able politician and a person symbolizing engagement in multilateralism from a position of power.  He has made the most of this high level appointment.

Upon leaving the Senate, Hillary Clinton must forgo the opportunity to shepherd health care legislation through Congress.  However, Senators Baucus and Kennedy, among others, are stepping ino the lead.

As for Republicans harboring disapproval of Hillary Clinton, she may yet win them over in the role of Secretary of State, where strength and assertiveness are viewed as assets.

Our Government in Action — Will Stimulus Succeed?

By Marc Seltzer; originally published on November 17, 2008, at politicsunlocked.com

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Know Your History
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates back in 2007, with hopes of persuading businesses to borrow more money, bolstering their operations and growth.  Unfortunately, there is a considerable lag time between when rate cuts are enacted and resulting increases in business activity occur.  These rate cuts may have stopped even more dramatic declines than we are currently seeing, but they certainly have not reversed the downward slide in stock prices or business activity leading the global recession.

Consumer and business spending reflects confidence in stable prices, employment and business prospects.  As exploding oil prices sucked up a disproportionate share of family budgets and business profits and as real estate values declined, confidence fell.  Now, with the unemployment rate rising significantly, people are increasingly less confident, and more importantly, spending less, regardless of whether they have a job or not.

Now What?
The talk in Washington and near water-coolers around the country, concerns fiscal policy related to revenue and spending.

There are two approaches:  Lowering taxes to leave money in private hands and government spending to boost commercial activity and jobs.

Polls have found that the middle class tended to pay off debts and save for a rainy day with recent tax rebates, although these rebates were meant to stimulate spending in the economy.  Small tax cuts for a distressed middle class may ease hardship in the heartland, but have not stimulated the economy as predicted.

On the other hand, rebates for the lowest income segment of society are immediately put back into the economy, being used on day-to-day necessities.  Tax cuts for wealthy Americans may promote entrepreneurial enterprise, but were already significantly lowered during the Bush administration.

President-elect Obama campaigned against the widening gap between the richest members of society and the middle class, so it is unlikely he will lower high-end income taxes further.  However, Obama may decide to delay repealing Bush’s tax cuts for the wealthy, so that in the near term, this money could enter the economy directly rather than being paid to the government.

Government spending programs also face a significant delay from the passage of legislation until full implementation.  If we could predict recessions more than a year in advance, it would be highly advantageous to commence most of our nation’s infrastructure spending before recessions and slow public spending when the economy heats up.

Traditional stimulus legislation allocates public money for infrastructure, although bailing out the auto industry could also be seen as maintaining or promoting economic activity.  Spending on defense programs such as FDR’s Manhattan Project or Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative, “Star Wars,” also created jobs, as did civilian spending, such as the Kennedy’s Moon Mission and the great dams of the Tennessee Valley Authority.  “Star Wars” led to a boom in civilian software and Internet technologies, which were responsible for a lion’s share of the prosperity and productivity gains in the 1990s.

President-elect Obama gave a hint of his thinking on fiscal stimulus recently, responding to a reporter’s question about aid to the auto industry, “It should be a bridge to somewhere, not a bridge to nowhere.”

The real risk with government spending is not deficit, but waste.  Temporary deficit spending that produces a stronger economy, more prepared to compete in the global marketplace, is well worth the cost.  Infrastructure such as bridges, ports, green technology and alternative energy or even a trained and educated workforce, that advances the productivity and competitiveness of the nation, creates employment and serves the long-range national interest.

However, if the money only temporarily stimulates jobs and spending, but produces no long term productive gains, it will be just a “bridge to nowhere,” the moniker attached to an expensive and unnecessary Alaskan pork-barrel spending project.  Such wasteful spending not only uses up limited resources, but increases the deficit without providing improvement to the foundation of our future economic prosperity.

The Right Direction Now and For The Future

To Senators Obama and Reid and Representative Pelosi:

In the sixties, President Kennedy put hundreds of thousands to work on the space program, putting a man on the moon, aptly symbolizing American leadership, and foretelling United States military superiority and civilian commercial dominance in aerospace and communications for thirty years. The technological advantage American industry gained on the investment could not have been achieved absent the governmental commitment or resources. 

In the eighties, President Reagan funded Star Wars, which achieved little in missile defense, but nonetheless, changed the world, leading to U.S. civilian computer, satellite and Internet superiority and prosperity for another thirty-year period.  The time is again right for government investment in creating the future. 

First, the beginning of a recession is a good time to act, because stimulus is helpful, jobs are at stake, and a government-funded program will immediately instill confidence in long-term labor conditions.  This is far more productive stimulus than refund checks, which do ease family budget concerns, but only  marginally improve commerce.  They do little to support employment prospects and nothing to support long-term wealth creation.

Second, there are many areas, such as pharmaceutical research, Green technologies or military hardware, that require massive investment to achieve their full potential.  No one can claim that research and development in alternative energy or pharmaceutical testing is near capacity.  Both are so financially risky that only a fraction of what could be done is being done, even though the lives of millions and the future economic health of many nations hang in the balance.  As with past science and technology programs, the initial public investment in energy, medical or environmental technology would surely be followed by decades of highly profitable private business applications.

Finally, the arguments against publicly funded investment misunderstand the real problems of government spending and deficit spending in particular.  We can agree that private investment and direction of resources is superior to public, and yet still acknowledge the need for a military, Civil Corps of Engineers, or law enforcement to meet national needs.  In the 1940s, the Government put the nation to work to produce armaments on a vast scale enabling our defeat of Fascism. Some tasks are just too large to be left to the private marketplace. 

The real question is what should public money be used for, and crucially, what should it be used for when we are over budget? 

The answers are not the same.  Most commentators today oversimplify the issues surrounding deficit spending.  They assert that a balanced budget or small deficits are always good and large deficits are bad, with the caveat that deficit spending during a recession is good as it stimulates the economy while spending during high growth periods is bad as it adds to inflation. 

Without more, neither view is adequate. 

Deficit spending is essentially borrowing from the future for the present.  Thus, deficit spending can be thought of as irresponsible, and in some ways unethical, because it uses future resources to satisfy today’s needs.  However, deficit spending only depletes future resources and weaken financial integrity when it does not lead to long-term financial health.  When such spending is for infrastructure and facilitates wealth and revenue in the future, it is neither irresponsible nor unethical. 

Such spending should be judged on the benefit versus risk of success at achieving its goals.  Kennedy’s Sending of a Man to the Moon was a huge risk, but it paid off handsomely in its political, scientific and commercial legacy.  Reagan’s Star Wars research was less of a reach and it paid off, even though the goal of the original research has still not been achieved.

In this light deficit funding for Green technologies would stimulate the economy during a recession and, if successful, would lower energy and environmental costs in the long run.   This is how prosperous periods have occurred.  Improvements in productivity mitigate inflationary pressures while increasing wealth during economic expansion.  

Politically and commercially the benefits are obvious as leadership and wealth will be the rewards to nations that meet the challenges of the future most efficiently and profitably.  Medical research presents similar cost/benefit prospects and military investment, though to a lesser extent, may also be useful given the difficulties we have had achieving military goals in the past decade.

The alternatives pale in comparison.  Giving stimulus to individuals and businesses in the form of refunds or tax cuts at a time of economic slowdown has short-term social and economic value at a cost that is roughly equal to what has to be paid back later with interest.  Investing in roads and bridges provides some job support and infrastructure upkeep, but no dynamic future benefits.  Doing nothing has such great lost-opportunity costs.  On the other hand, investing in the technology of the future will have a modest short-term economic benefit in confidence and jobs, and in the long term, if past is prologue, it will present unimagined opportunity.

Marc Seltzer