Category Archives: politics

Tweeting the News from Iran

Posted on June 17, 2009 | 1 comment
By Marc Seltzer; originally published June 17, 2009 at http://www.politicsunlocked.com/index.php/article/tweeting_the_news_from_iran/25911

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Reporting through Twitter while other outlets are banned

A literary theme familiar in the United States is that government may one day use technology to oppress its people. George Orwell’s novel Nineteen Eighty-Four planted the seed of awareness in the Western mind, and as radars have come to watch our speed on the road, cameras look for criminal behavior indoors and satellites listen to our telephone calls, we have become concerned about the growing power of “Big Brother.”

Could Orwell have imagined that the tables may be turned on oppressive governments in the 21st century? Following the June election in Iran, the Islamic Republic is turning off the technology in hopes of restricting communications among its stirring populace. Journalists are restricted from covering protests. Major news organizations are unable to penetrate the events with video cameras and microphones.

However, regular Iranians are reporting from the streets by Twitter. A social networking site popular among celebrities, Twitter conveys short messages, including images and websites by Internet URL link from a cell phone, handheld digital device or computer. Followers around the world receive updates from the homes, offices and streets of Tehran.

To get a sense of what can and cannot be conveyed in the 140 characters that each “Tweet” is limited, to I have copied a recent series of communications (each of the following paragraph blurbs were originally separate “Tweets”):

  • it is now dawn in tehran – streets are quiet – we must move from here – this was good internet connection but not ours – #Iranelection
  • last night thousands stayed in streets between Parkway and Vanak sq until after 2am – #Iranelection
  • unconfirmed – several Generals have been arested – #Iranelection
  • unconfirmed – military has refused orders to shoot protesters – #Iranelection
  • Kamenei is under pressure and fighting for survival – without ANejad his authority is finished – #Iranelection
  • large demo today outside tehran tv-radio headquerters – Karroubi attended – #Iranelection
  • support for Mousavi in Tabriz is v-high – many protests – #Iranelection

While Twitter is not a major news outlet with live reporting and video, it is still contemporaneous to the events reported. There are questions of credibility as a consequence, such as who is really Tweeting, which we cannot always know. In fact, some Twitter communications have warned that the Iranian Government is setting up fake Twitter sites, spreading false information to protesters.

On the other hand, Twitter has been used to guide hundreds of thousands of protesters to rallies and redirect them quickly and efficiently when locations or times are changed. Reports on the arrest of leaders, the number of participants at government and opposition rallies, and action or lack of action by the police and military are also reported.

A few of the hot Twitter sources are: “Persiankiwi”, “Irannewsnow”, and “StopAhmadi”. The U.S. State Department reportedly asked the executives at Twitter, located in California, to forego a scheduled maintenance shut down in order to keep the Tweets coming during the Iranian crisis. Traditional print and broadcast reporters have been told that they cannot report on events in Iran without permission of the government, and that permission is not being given freely. As events unfold, you may be able to piece together facts on the ground in Iran using updates from Twitter sources.

While the outcome of the election conflict in Iran remains to be seen, at this point, the public is using technology to further democratic ends. Where there is no free press, information still flows from person to person through the Internet. Where the government tries to restrict public assembly, instant communication helps people organize and connect in protest beyond the reach of the government. And, where the government tries to control the story, the truth gets out. George Orwell, who wrote during the consolidation of Soviet authoritarianism, might be surprised. He would certainly be pleased.

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Justice Sonia Sotomayor Fits the Obama Mold

Posted on May 29, 2009 | Leave a comment
By Marc Seltzer; originally published on May 29, 2009 at politicsunlocked.com

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The nomination of Justice Sonia Sotomayor to the U.S. Supreme Court fits perfectly with President Obama’s vision for good government: independent intellect, moderate politics, and pragmatism.

Sotomayor is a first generation Puerto-Rican American of humble upbringing. She distinguished herself academically, graduating summa cum laude from Princeton and editing the Yale Law Journal. Like Mr. Obama she proved herself and opportunity followed academic excellence.

Sotomayor has acknowledged that being Hispanic and a woman may be qualifications, or at least qualities, important to her professional career. “I would hope that a wise Latina woman with the richness of her experiences would more often than not reach a better conclusion than a white male who hasn’t lived that life,” she said in a speech. This differs from President Obama who hesitated to make distinctions part of his political language and for whom “we” most often meant middle-class Americans.

Republicans have attacked Sotomayor’s remarks as identity politics and raised fears of a judicial philosophy of preferences. But is this just grasping for straws?

First, simply, is the question of what she meant. Did she mean that it was about time for women and Hispanics to be better represented in government service? After all, there have been 110 Supreme Court Justices since the nation’s founding, and only two have been women. None have been Hispanic except Justice Benjamin Cordozo, of European Jewish ancestry, who may have had Portuguese bloodlines a few centuries back. Arguing that Cordozo keeps Sotomayor from being recognized as potentially the first Hispanic on the Court is nonsense.

Or did Justice Sotomayor mean that experience in life – adversity, discrimination, and disadvantage – helped her to build character and taught her about life in a way that wealth and social status might not have?

Conservatives may worry that she would be an advocate for women and for minorities on the court, emphasizing sympathy over the legal rules. This treads into especially difficult waters. Politically, liberals have often taken up the causes of women’s and minority rights. In the legal context, at least, conservatives have opposed affirmative action, or race-conscious government actions as reverse discrimination.

Commentators refer to decisions rendered by Ms. Sotomayor as technical and narrow rather than ideological and sweeping. In one case she emphasized how “embarrassing and humiliating” the school strip searches can be to teenage girls. Is this comment a sign of prejudice and activism? Because Sotomayor’s decisions are mainstream and are specific responses to facts rather than sweeping pronouncements of political theory, it is a stretch to find in them judicial activism or bias.

What is easier to find is pragmatism. Justice Sotomayor is known for concentrating on the facts of each case and for diligence and care in crafting her decisions.

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A Judicial Review: Justice Richard Posner

Posted on May 20, 2009 | Leave a comment
By Marc Seltzer; originally published on May 20, 2009 at politicsunlocked.com

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A potential candidate for the U.S. Supreme Court?

Justice Richard Posner of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit is a giant in the field of legal theory. In association with others at the University of Chicago Law School, Posner is a chief architect of a movement called “law and economics”: efforts to bring free-market economic thinking into legal theory. Consequently Posner is known as a conservative for his economic principles. However, he does not take broad ideological positions. For example, he supported the government’s recent efforts to stimulate the economy using public funds, but he opposed the use of tax rebates because he concluded that the public would save this money rather than spend it. Instead, he endorsed spending on roads, bridges and other infrastructure, generally in line with Democratic Party positions.

Justice Posner is also a unique Supreme Court candidate because he has expressed so many opinions outside of the courtroom. He has written 40 books and hundreds of articles. He also maintains an active blog with colleague Gary Becker and is considered the most prolific justice in U.S. history. He has expressed support for environmental regulation, abortion rights and other principles that make him appear socially liberal. On the other hand he has supported a powerful government in the context of national security, defending the use of torture and limiting press freedoms in a way that is not popular with critics of the Bush administration.

Can such a person be nominated to the U.S. Supreme Court?

In the past, this would not have been a problem. However, since the 1980s, every Supreme Court nomination has become a power struggle and performance where the political parties attack the other side and try to score points while painting the opposition as extreme. The nomination of Posner would be difficult because it would appeal to centrists from both parties, but it would also be a sitting duck for attack by ideologues from both parties.

The question for President Obama is whether he believes Posner would make a great justice. Obama knows Posner from their time together on the faculty at the University of Chicago Law School. They share a pragmatic view of politics and policy. Is the President willing to apply his political capital in support of a candidate who will draw fire from his own party? Is Obama comfortable appointing a justice with such an independent mind that his judicial decisionmaking is difficult to predict?

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A Judicial Review: Professor Cass Sunstein

Posted on May 15, 2009 | Leave a comment
By Marc Seltzer; originally published on May 13, 2009 at politicsunlocked.com

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Harvard Professor Cass Sunstein is 54, the same age as Justices Kim Wardlaw and Sonia Sotomayor, profiled here in recent weeks. A longtime Professor at the University of Chicago Law School, where he was a colleague of President Barack Obama, Sunstein is one of the country’s leading legal scholars. He has published widely with particular interest and expertise in environmental issues, information technology, and behavioral economics.

Sunstein is referred to as a liberal, but his political philosophy is not easy to categorize. He would appeal to some conservatives because of his belief that judges should carefully limit their focus to the case at hand, leaving the larger legal rulemaking to legislators. Mr. Sunstein supported the nomination of Bush appointee John Roberts Jr. to the Supreme Court. Roberts had articulated this philosophy of judicial minimalism in his Senate confirmation hearing.

However, when Justice Samuel Alito was nominated by President George W. Bush, Mr. Sunstein wrote a detailed analysis of Alito’s conservative rulings arguing that Alito was a “conservative’s conservative.” The op-ed did not overtly oppose Mr. Alito’s nomination, but it sought to make plain theesssential conservatism of Alito’s positions.

This type of record is something that would not be available for those considering Professor Cass as a nominee to the high court. He has not served as a judge and has no record of judicial decision-making to dissect.

Professor Sunstein left the University of Chicago to join the Harvard Law faculty this academic term, and in January was nominated by the Obama administration to be head of the Office of Information Technology and Regulatory Affairs.

He is extremely creative and forward-thinking. His most recent book Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness, which he co-authored with Richard H. Thaler, discusses a framework for moving society’s decisions in the right direction.

Responding to the question, “How does anyone determine what’s “good”? How do we determine what’s good for the environment?” in a recent interview, Sunstein explained,

“For most nudges, we’re thinking of people’s good by reference to their own judgments and evaluations. We’re not thinking that the government should make up its own decision about what’s good for people. The environment can fit within that framework to a substantial extent, but it has a wrinkle, which is that often when we buy certain goods or use certain energy or drive certain cars.…we inflict harm on others, so our own judgments about our own welfare aren’t complete. We want nudges that do help people who are being nudged but also help people who are harmed by those who are not taking adequate account of the risks they are imposing on other people.”

Sunstein’s pragmatism also seems a good fit for President Obama, demonstrated in the following quote:

“I think on a lot of problems, including environmental problems, we can make progress without getting stuck on issues that divide people. The price system can be used in a way that fits with people’s moral obligations. If you’re inflicting harms on other people but the costs of your actions (become) higher, then you’re probably going to inflict lower harms on other people. One of the great tasks of the next decade is to ensure that when people are creating risks though their daily activities, that they bear the cost.

I believe also that one big motivator of behavior is economic and another big motivator is moral, and for certain environmental activities we should appeal to people’s conscience. A lot of people are buying hybrids not because they save money, which they might, but because it’s the right thing to do. I just bought a hybrid myself. The reason I bought it was moral.”

Fundamental to Sunstein’s public policy theory is the idea that more information makes people more able to get the right outcome. If Sunstein is nominated to the Court, or if he is confirmed in the position at the Office of Information Technology and Regulatory Affairs, we should expect to receive an education.

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Immigration Solutions

Posted on May 12, 2009 | Leave a comment
By Marc Seltzer; originally published May 12, 2009, at care2.com

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Last month, after President Obama announced the beginning of a discussion on immigration reform, I wrote a blog discussing the fundamental political conflict at the heart of the matter:  Legalization for twelve million or so immigrants, whose status is currently illegal.

The two solutions offered by opposing sides are:  (1) strict enforcement of current law, leading to deportation of the illegal work force and those family members without legal residence; or (2) legal status and a path to citizenship with a fine for breaking the law.

The first option is not realistic because of the human costs, economic disruption and political beliefs of the majority of Americans and their representatives.  Those who see this as a black and white issue, where illegal means “no rights” are missing the historic context of a nation built on immigrants and hard work, not entitlement and status.  It’s not that illegal immigration is right, it’s that this solution is not right.  The nation may or may not be capable of policing its borders, but it is not capable of ten million deportations.

The second option is essentially the same “Amnesty” program that was implemented under President Ronald Reagan, with the addition of a potentially significant fine to punish and discourage the immigration law violations.

There has not been much discussion of the fine or potential restrictions of this type of legalization.  This may be where there is some room for compromise.  There is no reason that the fine could not be substantial, that the path toward citizenship could not be long, or that some immigrants could not be put in legal worker programs, where they would not be entitled to a path to citizenship without further application along with other non-resident applicants.

A stricter, more “punishing,” legalization program would serve to discourage illegal immigration in the future, especially if legal quotas for immigration kept up with the labor needs of U.S. employers and employers who broke the law were sanctioned.

If the second option (legalization) can be achieved politically, then the 12 million people who can take advantage of the program will come out from the shadows of the law and establish legal identities in the American system.  If this option cannot be achieved politically, the status quo may continue for another period.  This option has many negative consequences.   For the illegal residents, they suffer exploitation and lack of legal participation in the society in which they live.  Society loses their number in the census, in some tax collection and public allocation of resources.  Unfair competition with the legal workforce is also a problem.

So far, anti-legalization forces have not shown an interest in creative compromise.  It’s time they did so.  The failure to enact legal reform does not create a better real-world solution.  Helping to create an immigration program for the future that is realistic and firm is the best way to get the legal framework in line with an enforceable legal reality.

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A Judicial Review: Justice Sonia Sotomayor

Posted on May 11, 2009 | Leave a comment
By Marc Seltzer; originally published on May 11, 2009 at politicsunlocked.com
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President Barack Obama will soon name a Supreme Court nominee to fill the shoes of Justice David Souter.

Mr. Obama has stirred the pot in explaining what he is looking for in a justice, saying, “I will seek somebody with a sharp and independent mind, and a record of excellence and integrity. . . I will seek someone who understands that justice isn’t about some abstract legal theory or footnote in a case book, it is also about how our laws affect the daily realities of people’s lives, whether they can make a living, and care for their families, whether they feel safe in their homes, and welcome in their own nation. I view that quality of empathy, of understanding and identifying with peoples hopes and struggles as an essential ingredient for arriving at just decisions and outcomes.”

This is more a working man’s justice than an ivory tower intellectualism. Critics have already attacked Mr. Obama’s statement as though it sacrifices legal principles in favor of emotional sympathy. This is hardly likely, given Mr. Obama’s own background in education, role as a constitutional law professor and keen intellect, but it remains to be seen whether the issue will play into the selection of a candidate or the argument at hearings on confirmation. The overwhelming Democratic majority in the Senate may finally reduce the hearings to the pro-forma confirmation of years gone by.

Last week I profiled Justice Kim McLane Wardlaw of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. Another leading contender for the position is Justice of the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals, Sonia Sotomayor. Sotomayor was nominated by President George H.W. Bush to the federal bench and promoted by President Clinton to the federal court of appeals. She received bi-partisan support in both Senate confirmation votes, however, her nomination for the appellate position was stalled in the Senate committee by Republican Senators. She was seen as too liberal for objecting Senators who saw the nomination to the 2nd Circuit as preparation for a Supreme Court appointment.

Justice Sotomayor is considered a centrist although her opponents will likely paint her as a liberal in any attempt to derail her nomination. She is fifty-four years old and was born in New York to Puerto Rican immigrant parents. She would be the first Latina Supreme Court Justice if confirmed.

In 1994 she was the trial judge in the Major League Baseball strike case and her decision against the League and its effort to hire replacements and impose a new collective bargaining agreement effectively ended the strike.

The work of judges becomes a political football game when it comes time for nominations. Already Justice Sotomayor is being criticized in the press without much consideration for her judicial ability. More to the point are a list of evaluations of Justice Sotomayor by lawyers who interacted with her in court, provided by Loyola Law Professor Rob Kar:

“She is a brilliant judge and has been mentioned as a potential justice on the Supreme Court.”

“She’s of Supreme Court caliber. She’s very smart.”

“She’s very smart and well-educated, but she comes from very humble roots and I don’t think she’s forgotten that. She’s still human. She’s an outstanding judge.”

“I liked her when she was on the Southern District of New York, but I think she’s doing an even better job now that she has been elevated to the Second Circuit.”

“She’s brilliant.”

“She’s very impressive. She has really done a good job and made a name for herself.”

“She’s usually right on target.”

“She’s very scholarly.”

“She’s really able to tackle anything. She really is a quick learner.”

“Even though she’s still relatively young, she has a very keen legal mind. She’s outstanding.”

“She’s very well-qualified for the job. She’s really very impressive.”

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A Judicial Review: Justice Kim McLane Wardlaw

Posted on May 6, 2009 | Leave a comment
By Marc Seltzer; originally published on May 6, 2009, at politicsunlocked.com

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The selection of a Supreme Court nominee raises some obvious questions. Among them is one overall concern: will the nominee be liberal, centrist or conservative?

So called “liberals” on the Supreme Court have extended greater constitutional rights in the areas of a woman’s right to have an abortion and criminal defendants’ rights to fair process than their critics accept. “Conservative” justices have hesitated to extend constitutional protections to individuals and have at times limited the government’s ability to impose restrictions on business interests. These hot-button issues are a small fraction of the work of the Court, but they do draw lines in the sand.

Centrists have been more likely to recognize the values asserted by both liberal and conservative positions and look for justice within the complexity of conflicting rights and values.

Near the top of the list of potential Supreme Court nominees is Justice Kim McLane Wardlaw of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. Justice Kim McLane Wardlaw attended UCLA Law School and began her distinguished legal career in private practice. After 16 years at the Los Angeles office of O’Melveny & Myers, she was nominated by President Clinton to the federal judiciary. She worked first as a district court judge and then as a justice of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, where she is today.

Justice Wardlaw was supported by Democrats and Republicans in her confirmation hearings and was initially confirmed by the Senate Judiciary Committee by unanimous vote. Then, the entire Senate confirmed her unanimously. On nomination to the U.S. Court of Appeals position her Senate Judiciary hearing support was 17-1. Then the entire Senate again confirmed her unanimously.

Justice Wardlaw’s mother is Mexican-American and her father Scottish, which made her the first Mexican-American justice to be appointed to the U.S. Court of Appeals. She would also be the first Mexican-American to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court if President Obama selected her and her nomination was confirmed.

Justice Wardlaw’s positions demonstrate centrist reasoning and pragmatism. The following brief summaries of four of her opinions demonstrate that she does not always take a classically liberal or conservative view. In Card v. City of Everett, the Justice penned a majority opinion finding that a monument displaying the Ten Commandments on city land did not constitute the city’s endorsement of a religion in violation of the First Amendment “freedom of religion” restrictions.

In another case, Roe v. City of San Diego, Wardlaw disagreed with the Ninth Circuit majority and refused to extend constitutional protection to a police officer who was fired for selling adult videos of himself. The U.S. Supreme Court agreed with Wardlaw’s dissent and reversed the Ninth Circuit decision.

In Jones v. City of Los Angeles, Wardlaw wrote that arresting homeless people for occupying public property, when other shelter was not available, violated the Eighth Amendment’s prohibition against cruel and unusual punishment.

Finally, in Allen v. Woodford, Wardlaw determined that a defendant sentenced to death would not receive a new trial despite his counsel’s failures in representation because there was overwhelming evidence of guilt such that a jury would still have sentenced him to death.

Justice Wardlaw may not satisfy those who desire certainty that every decision will reflect their political philosophy. But she is a respected moderate with tremendous high-level legal experience and the endorsement of Democrats and Republicans alike.

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Evaluation of Bush Administration Assertions of Executive Branch Authority

Posted on March 28, 2009 | Leave a comment

By Marc Seltzer

Recently released documents (opens in PDF) show the extent to which the Bush administration took unprecedented power unto itself, exercising unfettered executive branch authority to conduct war inside the United States as well as abroad. Despite profound moral and Constitutional red flags, the Bush administration also sought, post-September 11, to conduct national security without oversight.

Based on the assertion of the president’s “independent, nonstatutory power to take military actions, domestic as well as foreign, if he determines such actions to be necessary to respond to the terrorist attacks upon the United States on September 11,” the administration conducted warrantless domestic surveillance and orchestrated extra-judicial detention and torture of prisoners — all within a cloak of secrecy.

As regarded through the eyes of his critics, Bush’s secrecy was an abuse of power. It went far beyond what was needed to protect military or strategic advantage, even in time of war, and hid unconstitutional and unlawful acts from review. Glenn Greenwald, writing in Salon, recently offered the observation that for eight years, “our Government secretly vested itself with the power to . . . create a whole regimen of secret laws that vested tyrannical, monarchical power in the President.” Speaking at a convention earlier this month, New Yorker contributor Seymour Hersh charged that “eight or nine neoconservatives took over our country.”

However, the administration and its supporters can point to years of domestic security that followed the September 11 attacks. Secrecy was used in an aggressive effort to protect the nation from al Qaeda and in the belief that intrusion into executive branch authority could hinder those efforts.

One could reasonably conclude that the administration officials either believed they could not risk interference of the courts and Congress in their pursuit of national security, or they operated under the premise that in this area the president has supreme authority, with checks and balances neither necessary nor desirable. Secrecy also spared the administration from facing public outcry. However, by creating secret policies authorizing domestic surveillance and detention, the administration denied the public, and the other two branches of government, an opportunity to participate in significant Constitutional deliberations.

Had the attacks on U.S. soil continued in the weeks and months following September 11, it is likely that congress and the courts would have countenanced an extreme concentration of power in the hands of the president in order to defend the nation. The Constitution is a flexible document, open to interpretation in the light of various circumstances. However, as the potential threats were nullified and weeks and months of security turned into years without an attack, the justification for secrecy diminished.  This led to at least a risk of Constitutional crisis, as the executive branch acted on new interpretations of that foundational document without congressional or judicial oversight and without a clear need for such secrecy.

The terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, D.C. justified an extensive retooling of national security policies. The executive branch was responsible for developing new surveillance, detention and military policies. The government has now had time to implement new programs, not to mention conduct major foreign wars. Just as it wasn’t the same world on September 12, 2001 that it had been two days before, today it’s no longer the same world that it was on September 12, 2001. President Bush’s decisions with respect to executive branch authority, and the policies of surveillance, detention, and secrecy that resulted, are now being subject to scrutiny.  While there will undoubtedly be partisan acrimony as opponents of the Bush administration allege violations of the law, there are fundamental constitutional questions about the authority of the executive branch to act on new interpretations of the constitution without oversight that must be explored.

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Mayor Geithner, Sheriff Krugman and the Only Game in Town

Posted on March 24, 2009 | Leave a comment

Originally published March 24, 2009, at care2.com

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Imagine a terrible snow-storm brings a community to a standstill.  There is a grocery store, with plenty of supplies to keep the town going for a few weeks, but the power is out and the owner and staff can’t reach the store.  The townspeople are enlightened enough to realize that if everyone takes what they please, the supplies wont last and the owners will be bankrupt when they return.

Sheriff Krugman advises Mayor Geithner to open the store and charge a dollar for each item. The town will have provisions, the owner will have money, and the town council can pay the owner at a later date for losses where the sale prices were too low.  “What’s important is that we are making it happen now.”

Mayor Geithner agrees to open the store.  But he’s afraid of the effect of the $1 dollar price tag on the town’s liability for the store’s losses.  He decides to try to revive the store by getting the town involved in a public/private partnership.  “First, I want some of you to invest in the store goods,” he tells onlookers.  “Then you can sell them for a profit to the public.  You set the prices to get what you can for the goods,” he explains.  “Some of the profit will go to the store owner, some to the town and some to you.  Suppliers that can reach us will make an effort to do so and will get paid for their supplies, while we are waiting for normal conditions to return.”

Sheriff Krugman warned, “This is complicated and depends on strong participation.  Meanwhile the food is perishing and may not be sold and resupplied in time,” he said.  “My plan gets the goods moving now so the supplies aren’t wasted. If your plan takes time and fails we will still have to get the food to people and we wont be able to charge much for it then. Too risky, when what we need is certainty.”

The Mayor then made his best case, “Here’s what I will do.  The town will lend you all the money to invest, since you don’t have access to the bank.  If you lose money the town will insure most of your losses, using the town’s share of profits when you succeed.”  “If you take an interest in the supply and demand of these goods, we should have prices that are as close to real prices as the conditions allow,” he said.  “Thus, no awful surprises when the owner comes back.”

Many people had stopped listening or fallen asleep.  Others were clueless. But a few were guessing the price of soap, thinking of the deals they would have to make in order to move the produce before it went bad andimagining that a run on canned sardines and the like could give them a chance to save for a new car.

No one wanted to lose money, but the terms weren’t bad.  

The people turned to the wise elder, Gergen, for his opinion on whether to follow Krugman or Geithner.  “It depends on you,” Gergen said.  “If you buy into the Mayor’s plan it may work.  If it fails, we will end up with the Sheriff’s plan whether we like it or not.”

You can stop imagining now.

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Immigration 2009

Posted on March 19, 2009 | Leave a comment
By Marc Seltzer; originally published on March 19, 2009 at care2.com

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No Easy Answers

The announcement that President Barack Obama will begin a public discussion of immigration reform in May will reawaken debate on a highly contentious issue.  At core, the issue pits those fiercely opposed to allowing illegal residents in the United States to convert their status to legal residency against those who, albeit with conditions, seek to legalize most of the U.S.’s estimated 12 million illegal residents.

Political Risks

If the President follows his campaign position in seeking a legislative solution that includes offering legal status to those in the country illegally, he will be investing his political capital in an extremely divisive issue at great political risk.

Prior to the 2008 election in which Democrats gained in both houses of congress, anti-illegal immigrant forces had the upper hand.  While Democratic gains make the congressional votes for reform more plausible, the economic crisis and growing unemployment will intensify concern that giving illegal residents the opportunity to obtain legal status will make already-difficult competition for jobs that much worse.

The President will have his hands full with this one and risks a political fight of an uglier, nastier and more divisive nature than even the financial turmoil has wrought.

Increasing Attention and Concern

The economic crisis and growing unemployment is likely to increase opposition to immigration generally and make compromise more difficult.  However, some commentators such as Thomas Friedman, in his NY Times column, have noted that allowing more legal immigration could bring wealthy immigrants eager to buy homes, shoring up the contracting real estate market.

Illegality is troubling, but what are the alternatives?

Illegal immigration presents the difficult combination of illegal entry into the United States, perceived competition for jobs, and use of public resources that is a too-bitter pill for many Americans.  Yet with nearly 12 million illegal immigrants residing in the United States, it is difficult to realistically imagine a solution that does not involve granting some form of legal status.

One approach would be to grant permission to work for a period of years, without giving traditional legal permanent residency, which begins a path towards citizenship.  However, advocates of a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, recognize that people who have effectively moved to the U.S., will likely be in financial and family jeopardy if they are forced to leave after having lived for five, ten or more years in the United States.  This type of compromise has not received significant support from immigration opponents, either, who chafe at the idea of rewarding those here illegally with any form of legitimate legal status.

Reagan’s Leadership, or a matter of time?

One thing is certain, poor management of the immigration issue in the past has set up a nearly impossible predicament in the present.  Congress could have largely managed the issue by raising legal immigration quotas sufficiently to keep up with the needs of employers during the 1990s and first decade of the new century.   Instead, the demand for labor far outstripped the legal supply and the debate shifted to unrealistic proposals of effective border enforcement on the one hand and mass deportation on the other.

In the end, Obama’s political skill and the Democratic congressional majorities may forge a “legalization” solution, much as Ronald Reagan did in 1986.  However, the opposition will be charged, and losing control of the issue could not only lead to defeat of immigration reform, but chip away at the President’s momentum and, so far, commanding authority.  While both sides in the debate should compromise and seek to offer creative solutions to the real problems that exist, within their principles, there will be those primarily looking to use the issue against Presidential authority and to position candidates for the 2010 congressional elections.

What to expect, at least initially

President Obama will likely push for a legalization process that aims to implement legal status after the recession eases and the unemployment rate declines.  Mr. Obama is opening the debate in May, and it would not be a surprise for legislation enacted in 2009 or 2010 to provide opportunities for legal status in 2010, 2011 or 2012, when employment is predicted to increase, if the recession ends.

Any proposal is likely to impose penalties and conditions as an attempt to deal with and discourage “unlawful” entry and residence.  More today than in the past, surveillance technology at the border and electronic identification procedures in the workplace make future enforcement of immigration laws possible, although by no means guaranteed.

UPDATE: In Immigration Solutions I push towards a compromise and ask both sides if they are willing to meet half way.  Whether it was because his hands were full with health care of because the prospect for immigration reform legislation was not good, President Obama has put off immigration legislation for at least a year.  In a later post I will review what is going on in enforcement and changes that result from the economic downturn with respect to illegal immigration.

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